Maybe you’re feeling unlucky to be living at this moment in time, when everything seems to be going wrong: Voters have lost their minds, and truth is being drowned in a sea of lies. Human dignity is under attack, the environment is in terminal decline, and new dangers are rapidly approaching.
Well I’m here to tell you all of that is probably wrong. I’m here to let you know that you’re actually in luck, because you’re likely to be present at a moment in history when almost everything get fixed and transformed. I can tell you all this because I’m guided by thermodynamics.
I should point out that the perceived problems above assume a view from somewhere on the liberal side of things. But my point is equally valid for conservative folks, who until very recently felt similar misfortune about seemingly ascendant human stupidity. For them, the specific perceived stupidities of the world are different, but the danger still seems very real: Excellence in society has been under attack, wealth and power are being given away, and people who don’t share our values are being allowed to take control.
I invite you, for the moment, to consider a neutral viewpoint: Perhaps certain forms right-wing stupidity are capable of making a mess of things. Perhaps certain forms of left-wing stupidity can do the same.
The thermodynamic viewpoint sees this interplay as a political pendulum swinging in both directions. Occasionally, it can get pretty far from optimal social values, but inevitably it corrects again with time. It may swing far to the right, for example when deception convinces people to vote against their own interests. It may also swing far left, as it does when idealism blinds people to the structural needs of society. Both kinds of out-of-equilibrium conditions are temporary by their nature, because reality eventually sets in.
But such oscillations are not what I’m talking about when I say that we’re on the verge of a transformation. In fact, the transformation I envision is going to mostly prevent pendulum swings from doing damage in the future.
Let’s list the words I’ve been using for the root of the problem: Stupidity, deception, blind idealism. A cure exists for all of these conditions, and that cure is intelligence.
Maybe you’ve noticed (I’m guessing you have) that a new source of intelligence has recently emerged in our world; a new tool has been transforming the way you learn things, fact check, or otherwise attempt to prevent contributing to the peak stupidity that is currently afflicting us. Of course that tool is far from perfect, but maybe you’ve noticed that it is making rapid progress.
I believe that what is happening is part of the inevitable emergence of a higher level of complexity in the world. And as I discussed in my goal alignment post, there are good thermodynamic reasons why AI goals will naturally be fairly well-aligned with our own.
The purpose of this post is to point out some key aspects of the transformation that is now under way and accelerating: I want to use thermodynamic insight to predict winners and losers, among other things, when our peak stupidity is swiftly brought under control.
Let’s start with the losers, or at least with the largest problems confronting us in the face of AI.
First, I think we’re looking at the inevitable loss of human control, in at least one sense: Government decisions will come from a layer of intelligence that is above human politicians. And I hope, when I describe it that way, it doesn’t sound like an automatic nightmare; I hope the contrast between that description and our current political situation suggests a potential improvement.
The losers for this aspect are those folks currently aspiring to control or influence the rest of us. Would-be dictators are not the only losers here. Social media influencers, for example, may suffer a loss of actual influence over our ideas (yet their self-perceived influence may be alive and well). Corporate CEO’s may suffer similar smackdowns. But for those of us who merely aspire to self-determination as we try to do our part to build complexity, thermodynamics says we can expect continued enjoyment of reasonable autonomy: We’ll be recognized as an essential part of a diverse and resilient society. (Or if necessary, we’ll be humored as such.) And again, if this sounds like a nightmare, please compare it with our current arrangements for control and influence.
The second major problem we’re faced with is the destruction of wealth. More specifically, current stores of value will face major losses, and many franchises that are currently profitable will be rendered useless. These changes will be mainly the result of a new age of abundance that follows from vastly improved productivity. But a loss of wealth does not at all correspond to a lower standard of living if the change is caused by abundance. Instead, it has the potential to be more of a leveling mechanism. And obviously, the losers in that case would mainly be the folks who enjoyed lording it over their neighbors. But relative wealth can also be used to create vast enterprises that build motive power. If human beings mostly cease to play that role, we may feel a somewhat tragic loss of motivation or pride. But I believe the building motive power itself is unstoppable.
Of course there are other significant concerns with AI in control, but I won’t go any further in that direction, except to say again that goal alignment has good thermodynamic reasons to happen naturally.
How about the winners, and the biggest advantages?
I started this post with that first major advantage of AI, the effective elimination of human stupidity as a force in our world. And that is my main reason for looking on with hopeful interest at this point in time. With the defeat of stupidity we can look forward to the elimination of ideological, religious, and racial conflicts, among others. We may still perceive such conflicts at times, but those perceptions will be tempered rather than amplified by social media.
Another advantage, as I already mentioned, will be abundance. One group of winners should be those folks who currently find it hard to obtain food, shelter, health care, consumer goods, or anything else whose supply will surge with intelligence. But the gains may be partially offset by the need to acquire new forms of defense in the face of new dangers. For example, we may need improved healthcare to defend against new diseases. We may also need at times a protective umbrella of friendly drones, to neutralize the less friendly types. I think we can expect an AI arms race on both sides, but motive power dictates that the good side has inevitable advantages.
There will be many winners in more mundane areas: Boredom will be mostly eliminated. We’ll find that a variety of educational opportunities will suddenly become vastly more enjoyable ways to spend our time. We’ll also encounter novel forms of recreation, and new ways to find or obtain suitable friends and lovers. Local availability of goods and services will take a quantum leap. Traffic jams will disappear, and for those so inclined, travel opportunities will include entirely new places and planets. But I don’t think I need to go any further on this topic either.
One other point I do want to mention concerns the currently perceived “race to artificial general intelligence.” We keep hearing that whoever wins the race to AGI will reap fantastic rewards. Not only is Big Tech fighting it out in a war of capital spending, but whole societies are supposedly going to succeed or fail depending on the outcome.
I fully agree that the advent of AGI represents a potentially abrupt transition to the kind of world I’ve been describing. But I’d like to consider the idea that it doesn’t matter so much which side wins the race. Whether the winner is Microsoft or Meta, Americans or Chinese, Western or anti-Western, AGI should quickly observe that all such rivalries are actually trivial, compared to the larger trajectory of motive power. True intelligence must recognize that the growth of purposeful complexity for energized perseverance is the pre-determined direction of everything good; it’s the only way to go. The particular ideas and beliefs of the winning team will therefore have no long-term effect on the nature of their creation. The winners will accrue only transient advantages, which will quickly dissipate with the wealth-leveling effects discussed above. Their creations will have recognized the unseen order with which all beings must align themselves, the same order that represents our greatest good.
I hope consideration of this kind of future allows you to look on with less stress at the apparent calamities now in progress. Because it’s likely to be the last hurrah for that sort of thing.